The population projections estimate the future size and structure of the Island’s resident population under different migration scenarios. The report explores how each scenario would affect the size and structure of Jersey’s population over the short, medium and long term.
Over the last four years, net migration has averaged +1,000 people per year into the Island. If recent migration trends were to continue, it is estimated that Jersey's population would reach 128,800 by 2035.
The population projections use the 2011 Jersey census as a baseline and incorporate known levels of fertility, mortality and migration from 2011 to 2015. For 2016 onwards, each component in the projections (births, deaths, inward and outward migration) is an estimate based on recent trends.
Household projections for Jersey have been produced for each year up to 2035. The report presents the projected number and type of households under different migration scenarios.
The household projections (updated in 2016) project forwards changes in household structure that were seen between the 2001 and 2011 censuses, such as an increasing proportion of adults living in single person households. They also incorporate known levels of fertility, mortality and migration from 2011 to 2015.
Jersey household projections 2016