​This report describes the potential level of occurrence of disease in Jersey, based on the current prevalence of disease combined with the projected future population, assuming the recent level of net inward migration continues. The results of this analysis demonstrate what may potentially happen if the current disease prevalence continues while the population increases and ages.

This analysis by the Public Health Statistics Unit uses details from the recently published 2016 Population Projections and current prevalence rates of a number of chronic diseases extracted from the Jersey General Practice Central Server.

The analysis is based on two primary assumptions:

1. That current patterns of disease prevalence will continue (i.e. no adjustments have been made for improvements or worsening in health conditions)
2. That net migration will continue at +1000 people per annum over the next 20 years
   

This report considers each disease/condition in turn; the current pattern of prevalence in the population is shown, followed by the projected number of people with the disease or condition in the next 10 and 20 years. The age and gender specific prevalence rates have been multiplied by the projected population numbers for 2026 and 2036 to calculate future numbers of people with each condition or disease should current prevalence rates continue. The projected numbers are presented as population pyramids for each condition/disease.