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Business Tendency Survey March 2020

Produced by the Statistics Jersey (Strategic Policy, Planning and Performance)
Authored by Statistics Jersey and published on 17 Apr 2020
Prepared internally, no external cost


The quarterly Jersey Business Tendency Survey (BTS) provides timely, qualitative information about the Island’s economy.
Chief executives and managing directors are asked for their opinions on the current situation of their business compared to three months earlier and their expectations for the next three months.

In March 2020:

  • the headline all-sector business activity indicator was negative, at -11 percentage points (pp); this means the proportion of businesses reporting an increase was 11 pp lower than those reporting a decrease
    • the business activity indicator was positive for the finance sector (+17 pp) and negative for the non-finance sector (-24 pp)
    • the all-sector business activity indicator decreased significantly over the three months to March (down 17 pp); the indicator decreased by 24 pp for non-finance, and was unchanged for finance
  • six of the eight current indicators were significantly negative and one was significantly positive
    • for the finance sector, there were three negative indicators, two positive indicators, and three indicators within 10 pp of zero
    • for the non-finance sector, six of the eight current indicators were negative, one was positive, and one within 10 pp of zero
  • the overall picture was more negative than last quarter; five current indicators decreased significantly and one (input costs) improved significantly
    • both the finance and non-finance sectors were more negative than last quarter in five current indicators, and more positive in one indicator (input costs), and two indicators changed by less than 10 pp

Next quarter - the three months to June 2020

  • the outlook for future business activity was negative (-23 pp) overall, and the indicator was also negative for both the finance and non-finance sectors (-21 pp and -23 pp respectively)
    • the overall future business activity indicator was significantly lower than 3 months ago, down 39 pp, and was the lowest value recorded for this indicator
  • the future employment outlook was neutral (+2 pp) overall, with finance positive (+16 pp) and non‑finance slightly negative (-5 pp)
    • the future employment indicator was unchanged from last quarter overall and for the finance sector, and was essentially unchanged for the non-finance sector (down -1 pp)

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