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Business Tendency Survey September 2020

Produced by the Statistics Jersey (Strategic Policy, Planning and Performance)
Authored by Statistics Jersey and published on 22 Oct 2020
Prepared internally, no external cost

Summary

The quarterly Jersey Business Tendency Survey (BTS) provides timely, qualitative information about the Island’s economy.

Chief executives and managing directors are asked for their opinions on the current situation of their business compared to three months earlier and their expectations for the next three months.

Business activity indicator

  • the headline all-sector business activity indicator was slightly negative, at -8 percentage points (pp); this means the proportion of businesses reporting an increase was 8 pp lower than those reporting a decrease
    • the business activity indicator was neutral for the finance sector (-1 pp) and was negative for the non-finance sector (-11 pp)
    • the business activity indicator increased significantly over the three months since June, overall and for both finance and non-finance; the increases overall and for non-finance were the largest recorded to date
Current indicators
  • six of the eight current indicators were significantly negative, and none were significantly positive
    • for the finance sector, there were four negative indicators, and four indicators within 10 pp of zero
    • for the non-finance sector, seven of the eight current indicators were negative, and one was within 10 pp of zero
  • the overall picture was significantly more positive than last quarter; six current indicators increased significantly and one (input costs) declined significantly 
    • the finance sector was more positive than in June 2020 in four current indicators, more negative in one (product prices), and three indicators changed by less than 10 pp
    • the non-finance sector was more positive than last quarter in six current indicators, more negative in one indicator (input costs), and one indicator changed by less than 10 pp

Current situation: COVID-19

  • the turnover indicator was negative at -11 pp
  • the actively working indicator was negative at -16 pp
  • the most commonly cited workforce measure taken in response to COVID-19 was to enrol in the government Co-Funded Payroll Scheme (36%)

Next quarter – the three months to December 2020

  • the outlook for future business activity was within 10 pp of zero (-4 pp) overall, while the indicator was positive for finance (+13 pp) and negative for non-finance (-11 pp)
    • the overall future business activity indicator was more positive than 3 months ago, up 10 pp
    • the future business activity indicator for finance increased strongly since June, up 45 pp
    • the future business activity indicator did not change significantly for non-finance, down 5 pp
  • the overall future employment outlook was within 10 pp of zero (-3 pp), while it was positive (+13 pp) for finance and negative for non finance (-10 pp)
    • the quarterly changes in this indicator overall and for both finance and non-finance were all less than 10 pp

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