Covid-19 modelling predictions (FOI)
Covid-19 modelling predictions (FOI)Produced by the Freedom of Information office
Authored by Government of Jersey and published on 22 May 2020.
Prepared internally, no external costs.
Please make available the model(s) that the government is using to make its predictions concerning the spread of Coronavirus across Jersey.
Is Jersey using the same model as Guernsey? If not why not?
What UK authorities have been consulted?
Please provide the rationale for the protocol for selecting who gets tested and who doesn’t? Currently being conducted on healthcare professionals, those who have returned from elsewhere and those who have been in contact with a known positive are being tested.
Please provide the rationale for not including loss of taste and smell as one of the key symptoms in all the media.
Please provide all communications including emails that show the rational for not including the main languages of Jersey in the recent all Island text. I am trying to establish why Portuguese and Polish were not included at the very least.
Information in relation to the modelling used in relation to the on Island predicted curve, is available in the following publication by Statistics Jersey;
The modelling of the Imperial College London was also referenced:
Imperial College London research
This information is not held.
Health and Community Services is not maintaining a record of differences in policy or protocol with other local authorities or Islands.
Public Health England (including the Overseas Territories Programme)
Imperial College London
The relevant parties have also remotely attended the Directors of Public Health conferences.
Testing commenced with individuals who are symptomatic and either presented at a medical facility or called in to the Covid-19 Helpline.
Testing is now being expanded to pro-actively screen a number of sub populations, focusing on those most at risk (to self or to others). This includes health care workers and patients (including care homes). The screening of arrivals into the island will also commence shortly.
These symptoms were included in the list of Covid-19 symptoms for Jersey in April (about six weeks ago) ) in recognition that they are important features of COVID. The UK added these symptoms to the list of Covid-19 symptoms on 18 May 2020.
No such communications exist. Messages were delivered in the official language of the Island. Information on non-English speakers would not be recorded by the Government of Jersey and it would be both intrusive and costly to send multiple messages to all residents of the Island. All hard copy information (fliers and so on) and all posters are available in multiple languages.