Future housing needs

The report on Jersey's future housing needs provides estimates of Jersey's potential housing requirements for the three-year period 2023 to 2025. It gives a detailed picture of supply and demand based on household's intentions in mid-2022.

The information was collected through a set of questions included in the 2022 round of the Jersey Opinons and Lifestyle Survey.

Key findings

Based on the intentions of households (before applying affordability criteria) over the three-year period 2023 to 2025:

before the supply of new dwellings, there is an overall anticipated shortfall of 610 dwelling units
there is a potential shortfall of around 910 units in the owner-occupier sector; in particular, there is a large potential shortfall of 2-bedroom properties in this sector
under the baseline scenario of +700 net migration, there is a potential shortfall of around 220 units of registered accommodation; in particular, there is a potential shortfall of 1-bedroom properties in this sector

Three year housing surplus and shortfalls by tenure and size of dwelling 2023 to 2025

Source: Statistics Jersey, download the chart data

In respect of net migration

the potential surpluses and shortfalls in the qualified tenures of accommodation are impacted less by the level of net inward migration during the next three years, than registered accommodation
a level of net inward migration of around +500 people per year results in a balanced supply and demand of registered accommodation over the next three years
a level of net inward migration of around +1,000 people per year results in a potential shortfall of almost 550 registered accommodation units over the next three years
there was an increase in the proportion of the respondents intending to move outside Jersey compared to the previous survey (from 13% in 2018, to 34% in 2022)