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Business Tendency Survey September 2019

25 October 2019

Statistics Jersey have today published the results of the September 2019 Business Tendency Survey. The quarterly Jersey Business Tendency Survey (BTS) provides timely, qualitative information about the Island’s economy.

Chief executives and managing directors are asked for their opinions on the current situation of their business compared to three months earlier and their expectations for the next three months.

Business activity indicator

  • the headline all-sector business activity indicator was marginally positive, at +3 percentage points (pp); this means the proportion of businesses reporting an increase was 3 pp greater than those reporting a decrease
  • the business activity indicator was slightly positive for the finance sector (+7 pp) and neutral for the non-finance sector (+2 pp)
  • the all-sector business activity indicator decreased significantly over the three months to September  (down 13 pp); the indicator decreased strongly by 26 pp for finance, and decreased slightly for non finance (down 6 pp)

Current indicators

  • two of the eight current indicators were significantly negative and one was significantly positive
  • for the finance sector, there were two significantly negative indicators and no significantly positive indicators
  • for the non-finance sector, two of the eight current indicators were significantly negative and one was significantly positive
  • the overall picture was more negative than last quarter; the two current indicators that changed significantly both decreased
  • the finance sector was significantly more negative than last quarter in four current indicators: business activity, input costs, profitability, and employment
  • the non-finance sector did not have any significant changes since the previous quarter; the largest change was in the profitability indicator, which was 9 pp lower

Next quarter – the three months to December 2019

  • the outlook for future business activity was neutral (-2 pp) overall, with the finance sector positive (+14 pp) and the non-finance sector slightly negative (-9 pp)
  • the future business activity indicator was significantly lower than 3 months and 12 months ago, down 15 pp and 23 pp respectively
  • the future employment outlook was significantly positive (+12 pp) overall, with finance strongly positive (+41 pp) and non-finance neutral (-2 pp)
  • the future employment indicator was higher than last quarter, up 9 pp, driven by a 23 pp increase for the finance sector; the non-finance indicator was essentially unchanged
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