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Business Tendency Survey December 2018

06 February 2019

The results of the December 2018 Business Tendency Survey have been released by Statistics Jersey.

The quarterly Jersey Business Tendency Survey (BTS) provides timely, qualitative information about the Island’s economy.

Chief executives and managing directors are asked for their opinions on the current situation of their business compared to three months earlier and their expectations for the next three months.

In December 2018:

  • the headline all-sector business activity indicator was positive, at +11 percentage points (pp); this means the proportion of businesses reporting an increase was 11 pp greater than those reporting a decrease
    • the business activity indicator was strongly positive for the finance sector (+28 pp) and marginally positive for the non-finance sector (+4 pp)
    • the all-sector business activity indicator decreased by 10 pp over the latest three months, due to a decrease in the non-finance indicator of 14 pp; the finance sector indicator was unchanged
  • four out of the eight current indicators were positive, two were neutral and two were negative 
    • for the finance sector, seven of the eight current indicators were positive and one was negative
    • for the non-finance sector, two of the eight current indicators were positive, two were neutral and four were negative
    • the finance sector was significantly more positive than non-finance in six of the eight current indicators
  • the overall picture was more negative than last quarter; of the three current indicators to change significantly, all were decreases
    • for the finance sector, there was one significant increase and one significant decrease
    • for the non-finance sector, there was one significant increase and four significant decreases
  • while the profitability indicator was negative (-14 pp) overall, it was positive for the finance sector (+7 pp) and negative for the non finance sector (-23 pp)
  • almost half (45%) of companies reported higher input costs, producing a strongly negative indicator of -44 pp; this was more pronounced for non-finance companies (-53 pp) than finance companies (-22 pp)

Regarding the next quarter, the first three months of 2019:

  • the outlook for future business activity was positive (+11 pp) overall, with the finance sector being strongly positive (+34 pp) and non-finance neutral (+1 pp)
    • the future business activity indicator was significantly lower than last quarter, down 10 pp
  • the future employment outlook was neutral (+3 pp) overall, with the finance sector being positive (+12 pp) and non-finance neutral (-1 pp)
    • the future employment indicator was significantly lower than last quarter, down 14 pp

Additional questions were asked of the finance sector:

  • employment expectations for 2019 were positive (+24 pp); 55% of finance companies predicted an increase, while 30% predicted a decrease
    • compared to expectations from December 2017, this indicator was significantly lower, down 25 pp
  • profit expectations for 2019 were strongly positive (+59 pp); 71% of finance companies predicted an increase, compared to 12% that predicted a decrease
    • compared to expectations from December 2017, this indicator was significantly lower, down 16 pp


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