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Business Tendency Survey June 2021

15 July 2021

​Statistics Jersey have today published the latest results from the Business Tendency Survey. 

This quarterly survey provides timely, qualitative information about the Island’s economy. Chief executives and managing directors are asked for their opinions on the current situation of their business compared to three months earlier and their expectations for the next three months.

Business activity indicator

  • the headline all-sector business activity indicator was moderately positive, at +20 percentage points (pp); this means the proportion of businesses that reported an increase was 20 pp higher than those that reported a decrease
    • the business activity indicator was strongly positive for the finance sector (+43 pp) and was moderately positive for the non-finance sector (+11 pp)
    • the business activity indicator for finance was significantly higher than in March 2021, and was the highest balance recorded since June 2014
    • the non-finance sector also saw a strong quarterly increase of 36 pp and was the highest recorded balance since September 2018

Current indicators

  • four of the eight current indicators were moderately positive, one was moderately negative (profitability) and only one indicator was extremely negative (input costs)
  • the overall picture was much more positive than the last quarter; six current indicators have improved, one has remained unchanged and only one indicator (input costs) has shown a decrease

Current situation: COVID-19

  • the turnover indicator was moderately positive at +10 pp, which shows a strong improvement of 31 pp compared to the previous quarter
  • the actively working indicator was essentially neutral at -8 pp which was unchanged from the previous quarter
  • in the last three months, 53% of businesses had taken some additional workforce measures in response to COVID-19, but the most cited measure in this quarter was recruiting staff rather than accessing the co-funded payroll scheme

Outlook for next quarter – the three months to September 2021

  • the outlook for future business activity was strongly positive (+29 pp) overall
    • the indicator balance was strongly positive for both finance (+38 pp) and non finance (+25 pp)
  • the overall future employment outlook was also strongly positive (+32 pp)
    • the indicator was strongly positive for finance (+49pp) and moderately positive for non finance (+21 pp)

2021 – Finance sector expectations

  • the employment expectations indicator for 2021 was strongly positive (+30 pp)
    • the balance for this indicator showed a strongly positive increase from +5 pp in December and -19 pp in June 2020
  • the profit expectations indicator for 2021 was extremely positive (+63 pp); 74% of finance companies anticipated an increase in profits in 2021, compared to 11% that anticipated a decrease; showing a strongly positive turnaround from the previous two quarters
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