The report on Jersey's future housing needs provides estimates of Jersey's potential housing requirements for the three-year period 2019 to 2021. It gives a detailed picture of supply and demand based on household's intentions in mid-2018.
The information was collected through a set of questions included in the 2018 round of the Jersey Annual Social Survey.
Based on the intentions of households (before applying affordability criteria) over the three-year period 2019 to 2021:
- before the supply of new dwellings, there is an overall anticipated shortfall of 2,750 dwelling units
- there is a potential shortfall of around 1,830 units in the owner-occupier sector; in particular, there is a large potential shortfall of 3-bedroom properties in this sector
- the previous round of this survey (relating to 2015-2018) recorded a potential surplus of registered accommodation; the latest potential shortfall has been largely driven by recent levels of migration
- under current migration trends, there is a potential shortfall of around 600 units of registered accommodation; in particular, there is a potential shortfall of 2-bedroom properties in this sector
Three year housing surplus and shortfalls by tenure and size of dwelling 2019 to 2021
Source: Statistics Jersey, download the chart data
In respect of net migration:
- the potential surpluses and shortfalls in the qualified tenures of accommodation are impacted less by the level of net inward migration during the next three years, than registered accommodation
- a level of net inward migration of around +500 people per year results in a potential net nil provision of registered accommodation over the next three years
- a level of net inward migration of around +700 people per year results in a potential shortfall of almost 300 registered accommodation units over the next three years
In respect of affordability - applying practical affordability criteria (using lower quartile property prices):
- reduces the levels of the potential shortfalls in the owner-occupier sector implied by expressed intention alone
- in particular, the shortfall of 2- and 3-bedroom owner-occupier properties is substantially reduced