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Information and public services for the Island of Jersey

L'înformâtion et les sèrvices publyis pouor I'Île dé Jèrri

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Updated population model for Jersey

21 September 2012

​The States of Jersey Statistics Unit has produced an updated population model for Jersey.

The population model provides a way of exploring what would happen to Jersey’s population under particular conditions. The new population model uses the 2011 census as a baseline, as well as recent trends in fertility, mortality and migration.

The population model has been used to produce a series of population projections which are outlined in the 2012 Jersey population projection report.  The report presents a variety of future scenarios of migration patterns and explores how the differing scenarios would affect the size and structure of Jersey’s population over a range of time frames:

  • short term (2020)
  • medium term (2035)
  • long term (2065)

The population projections can be used by government, businesses and the public to understand not only the likely changes in the overall size of Jersey’s population but also its structure in terms of age distribution under various migration patterns.

The population model itself will continue to be an important tool for informing debate and decision-making across government departments over the following months and years.​

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