07 July 2020
Statistics Jersey have today published the results of the latest round of the community antibody testing program, This is a survey of Islanders using rapid test kits in order to estimate the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 related antibodies in the Jersey population.
Our key finding is that the estimated population prevalence rate of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies is:
4.0% ± 1.2 pp (95% confidence interval)
There is no statistically significant difference between the results of this and the previous round of this study.
This prevalence rate is for the adult resident population living in private households in Jersey. The survey did not perform testing on any person aged under 16 years and did not include residents of communal establishments (such as care homes).
It is important to note that there remains a degree of uncertainty in the performance characteristics of the devices. This uncertainty is not reflected in the above confidence interval.
The estimated prevalence rate implies that the total number of cases of SARS-CoV-2 that have occurred in households living in private accommodation was approximately 3,500. Whilst it is anticipated that there may be differences between this population and those who were excluded from this study, applying the estimated prevalence rate to the full Island population would equate to approximately 4,300 cases having occurred to date.
Due to the initial lag between infection and antibodies becoming detectable, some cases in their early stages of infection will not be detected. The resultant prevalence rate should, therefore, be considered as the prevalence as of around 16th June 2020.