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Business Tendency Survey results published

27 January 2023

Statistics Jersey have today published the results of the December 2022 Business Tendency Survey.

This quarterly survey provides timely, qualitative information about the Island’s economy. Chief executives and managing directors are asked for their opinions on the current situation of their business compared to three months earlier and their expectations for the next three months.

Business activity indicator

  • the headline all-sector business activity indicator was neutral, at +4 percentage points (pp); this means the proportion of businesses that reported an increase was 4 pp higher than those that reported a decrease
    • the business activity indicator was strongly positive for the finance sector (+29 pp) and neutral for the non-finance sector (-7 pp)

Current indicators

  • one of the eight current indicators was extremely negative (input costs), one indicator was strongly negative (profitability) and one indicator was moderately negative (business optimism), while one indicator was extremely positive (product prices) 
  • the overall picture was more negative than last quarter; one current indicator decreased (employment)

Current situation: COVID-19

  • the turnover indicator was neutral at +3 pp, which is moderately decreased from the previous quarter
  • the actively working indicator was neutral at 0 pp, which is essentially unchanged from the previous quarter
  • in the last three months, 28% of businesses had taken some additional workforce measures in response to COVID-19, with the most cited measures in this quarter being recruited staff and increased working hours 

Outlook for next quarter – the three months to March 2023

  • the outlook for future business activity was neutral (+6 pp) 
    • the indicator balance was strongly positive for finance (+32 pp) and neutral for non finance ( 6 pp)
  • the overall future employment outlook was moderately positive (+22 pp)
    • the indicator was extremely positive for finance (+56 pp) and neutral for non finance (+6 pp)

2023 – Finance sector expectations

  • the employment expectations indicator for 2023 was extremely positive (+82 pp)
    • the balance for this indicator had strongly increased from December 2021 (up 25 pp)
  • the profit expectations indicator for 2023 was extremely positive (+58 pp); 74% of finance companies anticipated an increase in profits in 2023, compared to 16% that anticipated a decrease 
    • the balance for this indicator was moderately increased from December 2021 (up 13 pp)

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