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Business Tendency Survey results published

31 January 2024

​​​Statistics Jersey have today published the results of the December ​​2023 Business Tendency Survey.

This quarterly survey provides timely, qualitative information about the Island’s economy. Chief executives and managing directors are asked for their opinions on the current situation of their business compared to three months earlier and their expectations for the next three months.

Business activity indicator

  • the headline all-sector business activity indicator was neutral, at -1 percentage point (pp); this means the proportion of businesses that reported a decrease was 1 pp lower than those that reported an increase
  • the business activity indicator was strongly positive for the finance sector (+27 pp) and moderately negative for the non-finance sector (-13 pp)

Current indicators

  • one of the eight current indicators was extremely negative (input costs), two indicators were moderately negative (profitability and business optimism), one indicator was strongly positive (product prices), while the other four current indicators were neutral
  • for the finance sector, there was one extremely negative indicator (input costs), and there were seven positive indicators: four strongly positive and three moderately positive 
  • for the non-finance sector, one of the eight current indicators was extremely negative (input costs), two were strongly negative (profitability and business optimism), and two were moderately negative (business activity and capacity utilisation); in contrast, one indicator was strongly positive (product prices) and the other two were neutral
  • the overall picture was essentially the same as last quarter; the only notable change was a moderate increase in the new business indicator

Outlook for next quarter – the three months to March 2024

  • the outlook for future business activity was neutral (+9 pp) 
  • the indicator balance was strongly positive for finance (+48 pp) and neutral for non finance ( 9 pp)
  • the overall future employment outlook was neutral (+8 pp)
  • the indicator was strongly positive for finance (+43 pp) and neutral for non finance (-8 pp)
  • the overall future input costs outlook was extremely negative (-76 pp)
  • the indicator was extremely negative for finance (-78 pp) and extremely negative for non finance (-74 pp) 
  • the overall future product prices outlook was extremely positive (+53 pp)
  • the indicator was extremely positive for finance (+55 pp) and extremely positive for non finance (+52 pp)

2024 – Finance sector expectations

  • the employment expectations indicator for 2024 was extremely positive (+57 pp)
  • the balance for this indicator was strongly decreased from December 2022 (down 25 pp)
  • the profit expectations indicator for 2024 was strongly positive (+47 pp) 
  • the balance for this indicator was moderately decreased from December 2022 (down 11 pp)
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