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House price report for the fourth quarter 2023

15 February 2024

​​The house price report for the fourth quarter 2023 has been published today by Statistics Jersey.

The Jersey House Price Index measures the combined average price of 1- and 2-bedroom flats together with 2-, 3- and 4-bedroom houses. The index includes properties transacted through the Royal Court as well as share transfer properties.

Context

This year has seen a significant proportion of transactions (39%) take place as the result of completions occurring in new developments. These sales have impacted prices differently during each quarter and inflated the level of turnover in the year. The level of turnover would be 58% lower when compared to 2022 (rather than 43% lower), when excluding new builds in both years. 

Average prices for most property types were largely unaffected by these new developments. However, in Q1 the mean price for 1-bedroom flats would have been considerably higher. Conversely in Q2 and Q4 the mean price for 2-bedroom flats would have been considerably lower. Without the transactions within these new developments this year the overall House Price Index would have decreased by 5% compared with 2022, rather than the decrease of 3% recorded.

These sales from new developments make up a significant proportion of turnover, which means that they have a large impact on the composition of market sales statistics, particularly for flats. 

Annual Summary

In 2023: 
  • on a calendar year basis:
    • the Jersey House Price Index was 3% lower than in 2022, which was:
      • the first annual decrease in price since 2013
      • the second highest annual price decrease seen since at least 1986
    • 1-bedroom flats and 2- & 3-bedroom houses saw annual decreases in mean price
    • 2-bedroom flats and 4-bedroom houses saw annual increases in mean price and recorded their highest annual mean prices seen to date
    • all property types saw decreases in annual median price
    • advertised private sector rental prices were 1% lower than in 2022
    • turnover of properties was 43% lower compared with 2022, due to decreased sales of all property types but in particular 3- & 4-bedroom houses (both down by 55%); 2023 saw the lowest annual turnover seen since at least 2002 
  • overall housing affordability worsened on an annual basis:
    • all property types were less affordable to purchase than in 2022
    • a working household with mean net income was able to service a mortgage affordably on the purchase price of a median-priced 1-bedroom flat
    • a working household with mean net income was not able to service a mortgage affordably on the purchase price of a median-priced house of any size or a 2-bedroom flat
    • the ratio of median dwelling price to equivalised median household income in Jersey was lower compared to 2022 for all property types; however, this was outweighed by higher mortgage interest costs, resulting in worse housing affordability overall

In 2021/2022, rental stress improved since 2014/2015 for lower-income households in social rent and non-qualified accommodation, and was unchanged for lower-income households in qualified rent. 

Quarterly Summary 

In the fourth quarter of 2023:

  • on a rolling four-quarter basis, the mix-adjusted average price of dwellings sold in Jersey during the year ending Q4 2023 was 2% lower when compared with the previous quarter (year ending Q3 2023)
  • on a quarterly basis:
    • the seasonally adjusted mix-adjusted average price was 8% lower than in the previous quarter and 8% lower than in the corresponding quarter of 2022 (Q4 2022)
    • 2-bedroom flats saw an increase in their mean price compared to the previous quarter, reaching their highest mean price to date, although this was highly influenced by new developments
    • all other property types saw a decrease in price compared with the previous quarter
  • the turnover of properties was 36% lower than in Q4 2022 and 22% higher than in the previous quarter (Q3 2023) 
    • without newly built properties, turnover would have been 56% lower than in Q4 2022 and 39% lower than in the previous quarter (Q3 2023)
    • 28% of properties transacted were not purchased to be the main residence of the purchaser(s), a 20 percentage point increase from the previous quarter
  • overall housing market activity, on a rolling four-quarter basis, was around 13% lower than in the previous quarter (Q3 2022) and 44% lower than in the corresponding quarter of 2022
  • on a rolling four-quarter basis, advertised private sector rental prices were 1% lower during the year ending Q4 2023 compared with the year ending Q3 2023
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