Future housing needs

The report on Jersey's future housing needs provides estimates of Jersey's potential housing requirements for the three-year period 2019 to 2021. It gives a detailed picture of supply and demand based on household's intentions in mid-2018.

The information was collected through a set of questions included in the 2018 round of the Jersey Opinons and Lifestyle Survey.

Key findings

Based on the intentions of households (before applying affordability criteria) over the three-year period 2019 to 2021:

before the supply of new dwellings, there is an overall anticipated shortfall of 2,750 dwelling units
there is a potential shortfall of around 1,830 units in the owner-occupier sector; in particular, there is a large potential shortfall of 3-bedroom properties in this sector
the previous round of this survey (relating to 2015-2018) recorded a potential surplus of registered accommodation; the latest potential shortfall has been largely driven by recent levels of migration
under current migration trends, there is a potential shortfall of around 600 units of registered accommodation; in particular, there is a potential shortfall of 2-bedroom properties in this sector

Three year housing surplus and shortfalls by tenure and size of dwelling 2019 to 2021

Source: Statistics Jersey, download the chart data

In respect of net migration

the potential surpluses and shortfalls in the qualified tenures of accommodation are impacted less by the level of net inward migration during the next three years, than registered accommodation
a level of net inward migration of around +500 people per year results in a potential net nil provision of registered accommodation over the next three years
a level of net inward migration of around +700 people per year results in a potential shortfall of almost 300 registered accommodation units over the next three years

In respect of affordability - applying practical affordability criteria (using lower quartile property prices):

reduces the levels of the potential shortfalls in the owner-occupier sector implied by expressed intention alone
in particular, the shortfall of 2- and 3-bedroom owner-occupier properties is substantially reduced