Fiscal Policy Panel

About the Fiscal Policy Panel (FPP)

The Fiscal Policy Panel (FPP) provides Jersey's Minister for Treasury and Resources, and States Members, with independent advice on:

the strength of the economy, the economic outlook and the economic cycle in Jersey
the sustainability of public finances in the medium and long term including the net asset position
fiscal policy including the balance of tax and spend and the use of the Strategic Reserve Fund and the Stabilisation Fund

The Panel is established under Jersey's Public Finances Law and is a key element of Jersey's fiscal framework. It plays a key role by assessing the extent to which Jersey meets its fiscal guidelines.

The Panel also oversees the official forecasts for Jersey's economy, for use in fiscal forecasting and planning

The Panel is supported by the Economics Unit in the Department for Economy.

Latest reports

The FPP mainly publishes three types of report, with ad-hoc reports and letters when required.

Annual Report

The FPP has a statutory obligation to publish an annual report on the:

economic outlook
public sector net worth
transfers between funds

This is published after the Government Plan.

FPP Annual Report November 2023

Next publication: November 2024 (provisional)

Economic assumptions

The FPP writes to the Treasury Minister outlining its macroeconomic assumptions. This includes projections for the size of the economy (GVA) and inflation. These are usually published once or twice a year, and are also set out in the medium-term report, and are at the request of the Minister.

FPP Economic Assumptions July 2023

Next publication: May 2024

Medium Term Report

In the past, the FPP published reports before the first Government Plan and Medium-Term Financial Plan where it updated its estimates of trend economic assumptions. Going forward, the FPP plans to update this to coincide with the electoral cycle.

Jersey's Fiscal Policy Panel Medium Term Report July 2022

Next publication: 2026 (provisional)

Fiscal Policy Panel Housing Review

In September 2023, the FPP was asked by the Chief Economic Advisor for support in understanding the economic drivers underlying the challenges being experienced in Jersey’s housing market.

The Panel were asked to produce a rapid review and analysis of Jersey’s housing market that:

provides an authoritative summary of the performance of Jersey’s housing market. This should span the last 15 years
includes an analysis and assessment of the factors that have contributed to the performance of Jersey’s housing market
summarises the economic impact of Jersey’s housing market
includes a forward look, projecting the performance of Jersey’s housing market over the next 1 to 3 years

The Panel has produced the following review on Jersey’s housing market based on the latest data and evidence available, alongside extensive engagement with relevant stakeholders.

Jersey's Fiscal Policy Panel Housing Market Review April 2024

Previous reports

Panel members

The members of the FPP are:

Dame Kate Barker (Chair)
Professor Francis Breedon
Professor Richard Davies

Dame Kate Barker (Chair)

Dame Kate Barker was appointed to the FPP in 2014, and has been Chair since 2016.

She is chairman of trustees for the British Coal Staff Superannuation Scheme, chairs the trustee board of the Universities Superannuation Scheme, and is a Church Commissioner for the Church of England. She has held a number of non-executive director roles including for Taylor Wimpey plc and Man Group plc.

She led a quality review of the UK National Accounts for the Office for National Statistics in 2014 and has chaired a commission on Health and Social Care for the King’s Fund.

She was a member of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) at the Bank of England (2001 to 2010) and led 2 major policy reviews reporting to the Chancellor and the Secretary of State for Communities and Local Government:

Barker Review of UK Housing Supply (2003 to 2004)
Barker Review of Land-Use Planning (2005 to 2006)

She was created Dame Commander of the Order of the British Empire (DBE) for services to the economy in 2014.

Professor Francis Breedon

Professor Francis Breedon was appointed to the FFP in 2016.

He is Professor of Economics and Finance at Queen Mary University of London, a role which he has held since 2010.

He has wide-ranging experience as a professional economist, including practical and academic experience. As well as working at the Bank of England for 7 years, he has held senior economics positions in the private sector and continues to consult for a number of financial firms. His academic research focusses on international finance, and covers international macroeconomics and fiscal policy, including government funding and sovereign wealth funds.

He is also a Commissioner in the Scottish Fiscal Commission.

Professor Richard Davies

Professor Richard Davies was appointed to the FPP in 2018.

He holds the inaugural Chair in the Public Understanding of Economics at Bristol University, is director of the Economics Observatory, and a fellow at the Centre for Economic Performance, part of the London School of Economics (“LSE”).

Previously he was Chief of Staff of the LSE’s Growth Commission, Chair of the Council of Economic Advisors at HM Treasury, and worked at the Bank of England and the UK Competition Commission.

In addition to research and policy, Richard’s work includes writing for the public. He was previously Economics Editor at The Economist, authoring their guide to economics and, more recently, Extreme Economies, published by Penguin.